The Post-Smartphone Era Has Not Really Begun

TECH & AI

This article looks at the decline in smartphone sales and the slow, gradual emergence of new interfaces. Smartwatches and smart glasses today complement smartphones more than they replace them. Stakes for brands.

According to IDC, smartphone shipments fell 22% in the third quarter of 2026, a “record level” the research firm had never observed before.

Why are smartphone sales in freefall?

Entry-level volumes are collapsing, mainly because of rising memory costs that Chinese manufacturers are forced to pass on in order to protect their margins.

Replacement cycles are lengthening as consumers can no longer afford to pay such high prices. Subscription models are making a comeback to spread the cost, but they are concentrated at the premium end of the market.

Who are the winners and losers?

Apple is holding up better than its rivals. Its strongly premium positioning, combined with a shift toward services, subscriptions, and ecosystem loyalty, has already set it on a different path.

As I explain in this article in Les Echos, Samsung occupies a unique position. It can absorb cost pressures more easily because of its scale across the hardware ecosystem, as it manufactures its own chips, memory, and displays. More importantly, the conglomerate is a leading beneficiary of the rush toward AI infrastructure and server chips for hyperscalers. In the end, its chip division is funding its mobile division.

To a lesser extent, Huawei is doing well thanks to its strong position in the Chinese market and its shift toward its proprietary HarmonyOS ecosystem.

Ultimately, integrating AI is a complex challenge for manufacturers: it adds pressure on costs and margins without yet being a compelling selling point at scale. The key will be to clearly demonstrate real user value and a better customer experience for the end consumer.

Has the post-smartphone era really begun?

In my view, the answer is clearly no, not yet.

There is a lot of hype around new AI interfaces and devices, such as those OpenAI could launch with Jony Ive, former head of design at Apple.

Sales of connected jewelry, bracelets, and smartwatches (more than 185 million units in 2025) are accelerating. Meta is betting on smart glasses and has sold more than 7 million units by distributing its brands (Ray-Ban, Oakley) through many retail points of sale, thanks to its partnership with EssilorLuxottica. Samsung and Apple are expected to follow, but the market will likely be limited to a few tens of millions of units by 2030, still far from smartphone volumes, estimated at over 1.2 billion in 2025.

What does this mean for brands?

Today, connected devices are more of a complement than a substitute for smartphones, which remain the hub of our connected experiences.

In the coming years, multimodal interfaces that engage our senses will develop, enabling more contextual and conversational interactions.

For example, the main use of smart glasses today runs through audio. This is the bet Meta has made with its recently launched camera-free smart glasses. As I recently explained to Challenges, Meta aims to roll out its personal assistant, Muse AI, using glasses as a Trojan horse to embed itself in users’ daily lives.

For brands, this means AI is forcing a rethink of the interface. Rather than preparing for a post-smartphone era, the better move is to get ready to contextualize the user experience.

For more, see this earlier article, “AI is the new UI”.

By Thomas Husson, independent analyst.

I believe in quality over quantity so don’t expect daily or even weekly updates, but rather bi-monthly or monthly news – assuming I’ll only write when I have something meaningful to share.